Some rare good news from the Ebola epidemic

JUST two months ago the bodies of Ebola victims turned away from teeming treatment centres lay dead in the streets of Monrovia, the capital of Liberia. Now, in those same facilities, many of the beds lie empty. Could the outbreak that has so devastated the country finally be subsiding?
It is too early to say for sure but Bruce Aylward, who leads the World Health Organisation’s response to the Ebola crisis, is cautiously optimistic. The number of new cases in Liberia, which has been hardest hit, appears to be falling. The data are unreliable since many cases go unreported, not least because families are afraid of hospitals. But the trend seems real, says Dr Aylward, citing a levelling-off of lab-confirmed cases and a decline in burials. The Red Cross collected 117 bodies in the last full week of October in and around Monrovia, compared with a peak of 315 a week.
If the good news is confirmed, changes in behaviour—prodded by a vigorous public-awareness campaign—are the likely cause. Dr Aylward credits a “rapid scale-up” in safe burials and reduced contact between the healthy and the ill. Liberia has also isolated a “huge number” of Ebola patients and traced many of those who have come into contact with them.
With beds now lying empty, it may seem unnecessary for America to fulfil its promise of building 17 new 100-bed Ebola treatment centres in Liberia. But Dr Aylward believes the resources are still needed; there is a danger that the disease will be pushed back in one area only to re-emerge elsewhere. It has happened before.
The broader epidemic is far from over. The overall number of infections has risen to 13,703, from 9,936 a week ago—though this is largely due to the late reporting of old cases. Almost 5,000 people have died.

Ebola in graphics: examining the data behind the crisis so far

In parts of Guinea and Sierra Leone the number of cases has surged recently. Suspicion runs deep. This week an Ebola ambulance was forced off the road in the Port Loko district of Sierra Leone after being stoned by irate youths, unhappy that their relatives were being taken away. An angry mob in Freetown ripped down Ebola posters, until police intervened with tear gas.
Meanwhile in Mali, the bus journey of an infected two-year-old girl from Guinea has raised worries that the epidemic might keep spreading. Dr Aylward says the first glimmer of hope does not mean that Ebola has been tamed. “It’s like saying your pet tiger is under control.”